Decrease in the e-commerce market

According to PostNord’s annual E-barometern report, the Swedish e-commerce market shrank by 7 percent year-on-year 2022. The total turnover for e-commerce in 2022 was SEK 136 billion, with two product categories – pharmacy products and fashion & footwear – reporting positive growth. The near future is difficult to predict. It will be greatly affected by macro-economic factors such as international conflicts, inflation, and cost of living.

Three scenarios

The 2022 E-barometern presents three different scenarios for how the state of the economy might affect e-commerce in the short and long term:

• The tide will turn quite fast – e-commerce will slowly increase this year after a gloomy 2022.
• 2023 a year of pause – growth will be at a standstill this year, but will pick up speed again in 2024.
• A profound slowdown – there will be continued high inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices, and with a recovery first in a few years.

Clear trends

The report identifies some clear trends regarding Swedish e-commerce consumers’ behavior:

• Social e-commerce is showing strong growth. To browse and shop directly is becoming increasingly common. To understand the potential size of social e-commerce, one can look at the e-commerce market in the United States, which often influences the Swedish market.
• Influencer marketing is becoming more and more important for building brands. From a Swedish e-tailer’s perspective, the main value of collaborating with influencers is that it strengthens the brand.